Upbeat-Incision-Scripture
0xd5571b27b39200c2e1a20ec307d74d8f3e51ff14
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$6.02
Total PnL
$-91.57
Realised
$-0.13
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 79.4¢·now 72.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.64
$-0.33
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.38
$-0.68
- YES
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?
95 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
38 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
31 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.70
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
25 shares @ 86.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-21.76
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
22 shares @ 78.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.05
- NORWAY
Spread: Norway (-1.5)
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$3.14Aug 16, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$0.83Aug 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group AND LoL: Team Secret Whales vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Group Stage AND LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$5.00Aug 16, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$18.00Aug 1, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.75Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.23Jul 13, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 13, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$3.05Jul 12, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.11Jul 12, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.20Jul 7, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMParaguay vs. France: Team to Advance$5.00Jul 4, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$6.84Jul 3, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYParaguay vs. France: Team to Advance$4.55Jul 2, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$10.93Jul 2, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$25.50Jun 30, 23:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?$25.50Jun 30, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?$24.10Jun 24, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$23.71Jun 24, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$4.91Jun 23, 04:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $6.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 10:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.