Sour-Pinafore
0xd5621d1d7b5e53b6b5a3d6d2b79dc3d1358f6912
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.05
Total PnL
$-939.79
Realised
$-0.83
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?
10 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.01
- YES
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.55
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
24 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-12.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
24 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-12.24
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
24 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-12.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.74Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$2.74Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$2.74Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$2.74Jul 29, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$2.74Jul 29, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$5.00Jul 28, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.74Jul 28, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$3.07Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.50Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$3.07Jul 28, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$3.09Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$2.74Jul 28, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$3.09Jul 28, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.74Jul 28, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$5.75Jul 28, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$3.09Jul 28, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.74Jul 28, 14:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $2.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 06:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.