Worst-Improvement
0xd56ee3edbd486197d9f5a6a5605972420716b9a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-31.90
Win rate
21%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 17?
471 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 17?
471 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-17.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 17?
336 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-12.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 17?
256 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 17?
226 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-6.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 13?
213 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17?
200 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 12?
191 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 17?
175 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17?
167 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.47May 1, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.06May 1, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)$5.50Apr 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)$5.37Apr 15, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 15?$0.54Apr 15, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5)$5.75Apr 14, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5)$4.24Apr 13, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5)$1.88Apr 13, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?$4.59Apr 10, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: GamerLegion vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A$6.92Apr 10, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 11?$1.45Apr 10, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?$5.00Apr 10, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Team Secret vs DRX - Map 2 Winner$2.15Apr 5, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner$2.14Apr 4, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: GamerLegion vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A$4.36Apr 4, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYAHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Manitoba Moose$2.34Apr 4, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner$4.35Apr 4, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBulls vs. Knicks$17.68Apr 3, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLPacers vs. Hornets$17.68Apr 3, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPacers vs. Hornets$22.10Apr 3, 13:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 13:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 12:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.