Extroverted-Fava
0xd57ab85fca866da311f11e9c2b4458c946894dbb
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-271.17
Realised
$53.94
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
1502 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-18.19
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10?
708 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-13.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on December 5?
605 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 24?
500 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-8.44
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 10?
444 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-49.60
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 17?
300 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.54
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6?
250 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 9-15?
240 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-22.86
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 7?
151 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.81Mar 30, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$5.10Mar 30, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30?$2.62Mar 29, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$0.78Mar 29, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30?$5.91Mar 28, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30?$1.25Mar 27, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30?$2.04Mar 27, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$0.77Mar 27, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$0.95Mar 27, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$0.95Mar 27, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$5.10Mar 26, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$2.21Mar 26, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29?$7.05Mar 26, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 28?$2.70Mar 26, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 28?$6.00Mar 26, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on March 25?$3.04Mar 25, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on March 25?$1.90Mar 25, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?$12.66Mar 23, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?$35.20Mar 23, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?$5.91Mar 23, 07:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 06:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.