Frivolous-Sailor-Proximal
0xd58f09d809e25166762e50302b32d39dd169cb99
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$30.94
Total PnL
$-106.10
Realised
$45.22
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 17?
50 shares @ 36.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$11.25
$-6.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 16?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$6.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?
110 shares @ 14.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$6.05
$-9.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 16?
349 shares @ 3.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$5.24
$-8.03
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.40
$-1.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 25?
2040 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-18.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 15?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 15?
1702 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-14.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 15?
1009 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$0.56Aug 16, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$0.46Aug 16, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$4.95Aug 16, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$4.11Aug 16, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.43Aug 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.25Aug 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.28Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.40Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.16Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.12Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$2.80Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.12Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.12Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.77Aug 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.58Aug 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$1.94Aug 15, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.33Aug 15, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$4.57Aug 15, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$4.25Aug 15, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?$0.73Aug 15, 22:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 12:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.