Silent-Tadpole
0xd592d983c680b13d76d3bb8c5c795f87caceb698
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$1.98
Total PnL
$-76.97
Realised
$7.50
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.92
$-0.25
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?
112 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.06
$-1.17
- NO
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?
10500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.99
- SHARKS
Sharks vs. Senators
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?
798 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
797 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.82
- NO
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?
685 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?$1.83Jul 14, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.57Jul 6, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?$1.28Jul 5, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 5, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.05Jul 5, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$1.17Jul 1, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?$1.04Jun 27, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.21Jun 2, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$2.10May 25, 11:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.49May 25, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026?$0.95May 22, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026?$0.57May 22, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026?$1.21May 20, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Epic Games have the highest private market valuation on June 30?$1.04May 20, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026?$1.04May 19, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$1.04May 19, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May?$1.04May 19, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$10.21May 19, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?$1.04May 12, 23:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 13:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.