Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.51

Total PnL

$-156.28

Realised

$-6.82

Win rate

91 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 93

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET
113 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.51
$-0.49
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-9.99
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-7.99
YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 13?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?$4.26Jul 21, 09:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$5.29Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain to score first vs. Argentina?$1.03Jul 19, 02:36 UTC
REDEEMFrance to score first vs. England?$2.38Jul 19, 02:35 UTC
REDEEMWill England win on 2026-07-18?$4.00Jul 19, 02:35 UTC
REDEEMFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$4.35Jul 19, 02:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$2.07Jul 17, 19:39 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$2.09Jul 17, 19:38 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$3.08Jul 16, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance to score first vs. England?$1.04Jul 16, 13:45 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-18?$1.05Jul 16, 13:45 UTC
REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$1.89Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$3.15Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina to score first vs. England?$1.04Jul 15, 14:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$1.03Jul 15, 14:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$1.04Jul 15, 14:34 UTC
REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?$3.45Jul 14, 21:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1AM ET$2.47Jul 14, 06:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1AM ET$2.05Jul 14, 05:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$1.05Jul 13, 08:06 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

52/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 91 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

91 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry29 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $1.43
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 06:13 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 09:34 UTC
Win rate sample: 91 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:25:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data