Bony-Database
0xd5e1018be1a15ad6ccc542e3972deca77933db83
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$11.64
Realised
$87.69
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
1000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-9.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
732 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-4.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
182 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.32
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 6?
151 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.52
- NO
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
113 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
100 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-6.72
- YES
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?
100 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6?
95 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18?
90 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-4.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$2.43Oct 21, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31?$2.43Oct 21, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$1.91Oct 21, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$1.91Oct 21, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$1.45Oct 18, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELL IDF Chief Eyal Zamir out by December 31, 2025?$0.68Oct 18, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$1.00Oct 18, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?$1.00Oct 18, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?$2.77Oct 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?$1.54Oct 10, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?$0.72Oct 10, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?$26.89Oct 10, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?$3.00Oct 9, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31?$5.40Oct 9, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?$18.88Oct 9, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?$13.25Oct 9, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUY IDF Chief Eyal Zamir out by December 31, 2025?$0.97Oct 9, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUY IDF Chief Eyal Zamir out by December 31, 2025?$0.25Oct 9, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?$5.20Oct 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?$8.92Oct 9, 18:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 6, 03:34 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 21, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.