Threadbare-Poster
0xd602bea812a32320720b0bed323f66014bcc0105
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$9.5K
Total PnL
$-20.1K
Realised
$384.57
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?
2894 shares @ 6.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.9K
$2.7K
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25134 shares @ 6.2¢·now 7.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$198.81
- NO
Will Trump jail Elon Musk?
1546 shares @ 94.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.5K
$88.64
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1711 shares @ 53.0¢·now 41.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$712.76
$-194.23
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
1437 shares @ 14.5¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$711.56
$502.94
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
532 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$531.91
$31.91
- YES
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
981 shares @ 17.7¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$485.55
$311.53
- NO
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?
310 shares @ 81.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$310.11
$56.76
- NO
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
287 shares @ 65.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$286.58
$98.02
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
228 shares @ 52.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$227.98
$108.04
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.21Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.