Fussy-Matrix
0xd63f4a9c925cab2dcc836ac41ae66f21e19ffea7
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-24.21
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will between 223 and 224 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
1374 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-23.39
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
991 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-47.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
970 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-109.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
951 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.95
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
598 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-239.94
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
380 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UNITY ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group Stage
369 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
367 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$53.59Jul 21, 00:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$30.93Jul 21, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$25.94Jul 21, 00:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$34.46Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$26.14Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWinnipeg: Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick$40.14Jul 21, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$25.88Jul 20, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinnipeg: Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick$40.86Jul 20, 22:42 UTC
- REDEEMGenerali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse$10.68Jul 20, 20:35 UTC
- REDEEMPalermo: Lina Gjorcheska vs Erika Andreeva$56.10Jul 20, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalermo: Lina Gjorcheska vs Erika Andreeva$46.41Jul 20, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$19.61Jul 20, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLLivesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas$27.06Jul 20, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYLivesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas$9.58Jul 20, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$10.34Jul 20, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$10.38Jul 20, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$30.28Jul 20, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse$9.46Jul 20, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLivesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas$10.16Jul 20, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$15.54Jul 20, 15:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $20.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 03:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.