Grown-Oregano
0xd64a028deb545253deac6c3719e089bca7775612
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-511.43
Realised
$-4.52
Win rate
35%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?
114 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.98
- YES
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score
65 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?
64 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.27
- NO
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?
42 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.84
- SEATTLE MARINERS
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
30 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- JAMES MCCABE
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs James McCabe
20 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.63
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?
16 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1?
15 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.77
- KATERINA SINIAKOVA
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya
15 shares @ 42.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers$17.37Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$10.00Jul 20, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.17Jul 20, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$12.31Jul 20, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$5.26Jul 20, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$5.05Jul 20, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$5.08Jul 20, 17:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.71Jul 20, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.43Jul 13, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSouth Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score$30.49Jun 28, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$5.00Jun 18, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?$28.76Jun 16, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?$33.78Jun 16, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Haiti win on 2026-06-13?$5.00Jun 14, 05:04 UTC
- REDEEMPerugia: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Lorenzo Carboni$5.00Jun 2, 19:48 UTC
- REDEEMCenturion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Patrick Zahraj$5.00Jun 2, 19:38 UTC
- REDEEMHeilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin$4.79Jun 2, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMRoland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nouza/Oberleitner vs Bolelli/Vavassori$5.00Jun 2, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET$5.00Jun 2, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.00Jun 2, 15:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $5.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 14:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.