Hairy-Bullet
0xd64bd92151ffdf6d205d00e3d27002212e4bd37c
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$-123.22
Win rate
19%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7137 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
7028 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-38.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
5390 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-20.15
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
5287 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-47.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open?$0.25Apr 10, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open?$0.04Apr 8, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.70Apr 5, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$8.66Mar 31, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.58Mar 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.54Mar 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.52Mar 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.54Mar 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.54Mar 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$7.78Mar 31, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$2.00Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.28Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$2.00Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.26Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$2.00Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.26Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$2.00Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.20Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$2.00Mar 31, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6AM ET$1.18Mar 31, 10:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 10, 12:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.