Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

149

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.6K

Realised

$-34.98

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 149

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
2800 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-28.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
1602 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-217.08
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
867 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
731 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-226.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
657 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-106.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
485 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
455 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-220.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
420 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-90.49
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
407 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-92.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
359 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-46.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.34Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.58Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.22Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.22Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$28.91Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.58Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.23Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.67Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.83Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.27Jun 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.62Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$20.77Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.87Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.50Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$17.68Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$27.52Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.75Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$57.55May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$29.11May 30, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$23.02May 29, 08:00 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity33 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry56 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk53 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 20
Avg trade size: $36.89
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 21, 09:48 UTC
Last active: Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:03:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data