Ironclad-Jealousy
0xd6f1f51178bd6e4354b99138d6e8cc9eac17c4c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-59.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
3750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 14?
190 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
112 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
108 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
89 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
8 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?$8.33Apr 15, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$0.39Apr 9, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.00Mar 23, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.14Mar 23, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.00Mar 23, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?$1.23Mar 23, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$5.00Mar 23, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLPenguin listed on Binance by March 31?$2.39Mar 23, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31?$0.69Mar 23, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$1.95Mar 23, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.00Mar 16, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYPenguin listed on Binance by March 31?$10.00Mar 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYPenguin listed on Binance by March 31?$10.00Mar 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?$5.00Mar 14, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$15.00Mar 13, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 14?$5.00Mar 13, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$5.00Mar 13, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$5.00Mar 13, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31?$5.00Mar 13, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?$5.00Mar 13, 15:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 15:52 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 10:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.