Forceful-Buckwheat
0xd6fac3ac19b781335c18d7fa0c417c0d5578c61b
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-18.67
Realised
$2.08
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?
120 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 16 be between 90 and 95?
16 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?
13 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C or higher on May 19?
10 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 18?
9 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7?
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 18?
7 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 19?
6 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?
5 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 3?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.81Jun 1, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 21?$0.13May 20, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 21?$1.25May 20, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.20May 19, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.04May 18, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May?$1.09May 18, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May?$1.25May 18, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$0.82May 18, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 19?$0.30May 18, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 18?$1.35May 17, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on May 18?$1.54May 17, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 19?$1.25May 17, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$1.77May 17, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 48°C or higher on May 18?$0.29May 17, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$1.25May 17, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$1.67May 17, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C or higher on May 19?$1.25May 17, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 19?$1.25May 17, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$1.25May 17, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on May 18?$1.28May 17, 12:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 20:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 12:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.