Radiant-Nonbeliever
0xd71776a8d4fddeb3c150c4607b3f8bec31213b85
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-41.97
Realised
$234.20
Win rate
68%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 21?
259 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$254.52
$2.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?
244 shares @ 94.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$242.18
$12.88
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?
252 shares @ 44.3¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$122.29
$10.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 22?
77 shares @ 0.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$76.86
$76.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 22?
77 shares @ 0.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$75.86
$75.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 21?
74 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$73.66
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?
162 shares @ 39.7¢·now 44.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$71.42
$7.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 22?
77 shares @ 0.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$67.36
$67.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 22?
77 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$65.82
$2.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 21?
55 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$54.94
$1.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 21?$0.80Jul 21, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 21?$9.96Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 21?$2.37Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 21?$63.92Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 21?$24.65Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 21?$93.02Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 21?$192.53Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 21?$9.43Jul 21, 17:10 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?$10.00Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?$10.00Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?$10.00Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 23?$10.00Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 23?$10.00Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 21?$12.98Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 21?$36.75Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?$117.75Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?$127.97Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?$133.76Jul 21, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?$1.28Jul 21, 17:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
38 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $20.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 16:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.