Agitated-Mariachi
0xd74e1c8b39a3b74723721e86205c83c6fea925ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor end in a draw?
607 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-163.96
- MOLDOVA
Spread: Moldova (-2.5)
606 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-42.39
- YES
Will Iowa State advance to the Quarterfinals?
543 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-336.37
- YES
Will White House post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
425 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-46.75
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5?
386 shares @ 88.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-342.16
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $210?
307 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.29
- YES
Will Teddy Swims perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
263 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-8.15
- YES
Will Emily Watson win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
262 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.76
- YES
Will Clarence Blalock win the GA-14 special election?
237 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.63
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 80 and 90?
220 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?$18.11Jul 2, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?$18.02Jun 29, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?$14.51Jun 24, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?$16.39Jun 21, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21?$19.07Jun 21, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?$13.90Jun 20, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?$0.81Jun 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?$15.19Jun 18, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21?$18.96Jun 18, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Palestino end in a draw?$802.12Apr 7, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?$785.92Apr 4, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?$170.60Mar 30, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Belarus (-2.5)$114.03Mar 30, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?$442.42Mar 29, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?$30.32Mar 29, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Palestino end in a draw?$585.55Mar 28, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir (PLTR) close at $158-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$213.13Mar 28, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $280?$245.34Mar 28, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMJazz vs. Nuggets$661.74Mar 28, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Belarus (-2.5)$104.91Mar 26, 11:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $200.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 13:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 12:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.