0xd7e3da53d32768336b53bd4120be309b72438327
0xd7e3da53d32768336b53bd4120be309b72438327
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$50.14
Total PnL
$-27.28
Realised
$11.64
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
Will "Furious 7" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$9.95
$1.75
- NO
Will "A Quiet Place: Day One" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
10 shares @ 87.1¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$9.72
$1.01
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026?
10 shares @ 81.9¢·now 86.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.61
$0.42
- NO
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2026$4.90
$-0.09
- NO
Will Heike Boldt win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?
5 shares @ 64.8¢·now 96.7¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$4.83
$1.59
- NO
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 88.4¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 29, 2026$4.83
$0.41
- YES
Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?
3 shares @ 16.7¢·now 23.9¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.72
$0.22
- NO
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?
1 shares @ 51.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.61
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 1?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.58
$-0.50
- YES
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?
10 shares @ 16.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.56
$-1.11
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 3?$1.64Aug 1, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 1?$1.10Aug 1, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 3?$2.94Aug 1, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 3?$1.42Aug 1, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 3?$2.97Aug 1, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?$7.96Aug 1, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?$7.51Aug 1, 04:20 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Madrid on August 3?$10.00Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 3?$1.96Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 3?$1.98Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 3?$1.96Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3?$1.71Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 3?$1.12Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 3?$1.16Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?$1.57Aug 1, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?$1.67Aug 1, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?$3.07Aug 1, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?$0.02Aug 1, 03:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on July 31?$0.26Aug 1, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?$0.35Aug 1, 03:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 00:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.