Unnatural-Chateau
0xd7e47c0a00eaa434dcce28c65e7cd0112c16352d
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.38
Total PnL
$-189.75
Realised
$69.88
Win rate
75%
109 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?
1168 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$5.84
$2.84
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 26?
21 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.51
$0.09
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26?
36 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.04
$-1.09
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 26?
1248 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 12?
1030 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 4?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?
904 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 27?
857 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 11?
834 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?
678 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.63
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 26?$2.75Jun 26, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$1.23Jun 26, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$1.70Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$1.14Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$2.20Jun 26, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$2.00Jun 26, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?$1.00Jun 26, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 26?$1.32Jun 26, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?$0.97Jun 26, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$0.30Jun 26, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$2.00Jun 26, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?$0.04Jun 26, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?$1.00Jun 26, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 26?$1.00Jun 26, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?$0.18Jun 25, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26?$1.02Jun 25, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26?$0.11Jun 25, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26?$2.22Jun 25, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 26?$2.00Jun 25, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 26?$0.17Jun 25, 20:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 109 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
109 closed markets, 75% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 11:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 03:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 109 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.