Unnatural-Chateau
0xd7e47c0a00eaa434dcce28c65e7cd0112c16352d
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.65
Total PnL
$-231.81
Realised
$76.81
Win rate
69%
95 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 11?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.55
$-0.45
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on August 10?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.10
$-1.90
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 26?
1248 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 12?
1030 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 4?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June 29?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?
904 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 27?
857 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?
847 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 11?
834 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 10?$0.06Aug 10, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$1.30Aug 10, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 11?$2.00Aug 10, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$0.04Aug 10, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 10?$2.39Aug 10, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$1.60Aug 10, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$0.80Aug 10, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$1.00Aug 10, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 10?$1.00Aug 10, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 10?$4.00Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 10?$0.06Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 10?$0.04Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 10?$0.12Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 10?$0.06Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 10?$0.60Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 10?$0.28Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 10?$2.00Aug 10, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 10?$0.10Aug 10, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 05:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 95 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
95 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 05:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 10:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 95 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.