Sinful-Sled
0xd80ace15f3adeb0b6eee3472b7cecd3ca27bc714
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.0K
Realised
$-365.38
Win rate
31%
102 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
28114 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-556.46
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
717 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-299.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?
697 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-32.34
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
658 shares @ 74.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-490.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
581 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-499.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 3?
539 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-27.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 6?
536 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-19.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 4?
534 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-83.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 2?
525 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-22.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 11?
520 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-36.82
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$120.47May 30, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$101.18May 30, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$100.62May 30, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$106.37May 30, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$100.41May 30, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$27.20May 30, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$24.39May 30, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$105.25May 29, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$100.34May 29, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$102.00May 26, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$100.10May 26, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$101.00May 26, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$99.99May 26, 15:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$20.00May 26, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$18.50May 26, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$102.00May 26, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$100.10May 26, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$67.00May 25, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$66.38May 25, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$101.00May 25, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 102 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
102 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $80.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 11:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 08:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 102 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.