Excitable-Essay
0xd81ec2cd91060c6fe102b4df28952c84acb1355b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$424.45
Total PnL
$-231.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
200 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$176.00
$12.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 75.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$86.50
$11.50
- NO
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?
250 shares @ 16.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$80.00
$40.00
- NO
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?
200 shares @ 27.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$71.00
$17.00
- YES
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$10.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 26.2¢·now 24.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.95
$-0.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
389 shares @ 51.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?
150 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-22.50
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?
140 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- NO
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.00May 16, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$26.01May 16, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$23.07May 16, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$25.31May 16, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$9.98May 16, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$77.25May 16, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$103.33May 16, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$103.37May 16, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$103.43May 16, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$136.37May 16, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$103.50May 16, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$5.38May 16, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$8.26May 16, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$17.62May 16, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?$40.96May 16, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$20.24May 16, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$2.05May 16, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$4.56May 16, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$6.56May 16, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?$8.26May 16, 07:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $26.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".