0xd843d9650639ec84d9dd90f862f9b19910065062
0xd843d9650639ec84d9dd90f862f9b19910065062
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$41.75
Total PnL
$-264.01
Realised
$-1.32
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25?
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$5.00
$2.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$5.00
$2.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$5.00
$1.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$5.00
$2.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$4.99
$1.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$4.99
$2.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$3.40
$1.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12?
3 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$2.89
$1.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 25?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$2.86
$1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$2.62
$1.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12?$5.00Jun 20, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 12, 23:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?$5.00Jun 12, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12?$1.48Jun 12, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12?$2.55Jun 12, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12?$1.56Jun 12, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12?$2.90Jun 12, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?$2.65Jun 12, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12?$2.95Jun 12, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?$3.05Jun 12, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?$1.51Jun 12, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?$1.38Jun 12, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12?$0.71Jun 12, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12?$2.09Jun 12, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12?$2.60Jun 12, 04:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 17:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 00:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.