0xd8514b628363e6420313d1d1a45c0705048964d7
0xd8514b628363e6420313d1d1a45c0705048964d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$169.83
Total PnL
$-42.93
Realised
$868.41
Win rate
10%
77 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- NO
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
72 shares @ 90.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.40
$-2.16
- NO
Will Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
66 shares @ 90.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.54
$-1.46
- YES
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.50
$-8.50
- OVER
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$6.03
$1.03
- OVER
Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5
8 shares @ 59.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.89
$0.89
- UNDER
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
6 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.74
$0.74
- OVER
Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5
9 shares @ 55.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.55
$0.55
- OVER
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.89
$-6.11
- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of August 10 2026?
14 shares @ 36.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$3.61
$-1.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5$5.08Aug 12, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5$3.09Aug 12, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5$5.16Aug 12, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5$1.19Aug 12, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$233.88Aug 12, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$21.86Aug 12, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$99.29Aug 12, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$99.50Aug 12, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$153.85Aug 12, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?$154.10Aug 12, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$38.20Aug 12, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alicent Hightower die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$31.98Aug 12, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$5.77Aug 12, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$30.82Aug 12, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$4.29Aug 12, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5$5.18Aug 12, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5$5.08Aug 12, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMPittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5$6.02Aug 12, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5$6.41Aug 12, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMCleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5$7.94Aug 12, 01:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 77 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
77 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $39.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 14:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 02:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 77 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.