0xd86bb619e0edfd94b8a7bca18eed75c2a2582562
0xd86bb619e0edfd94b8a7bca18eed75c2a2582562
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$129.80
Total PnL
$-228.24
Realised
$-10.75
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$11.90
$6.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$11.76
$6.82
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$10.10
$5.05
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$10.00
$5.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$9.90
$4.95
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$9.61
$4.61
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$9.52
$4.57
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$9.52
$4.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 24?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$8.85
$3.89
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
9 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$8.84
$4.42
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?$0.01Apr 21, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?$0.02Apr 21, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?$5.88Apr 21, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?$0.00Apr 21, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?$0.00Apr 21, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?$0.00Apr 21, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.07Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.07Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.04Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.11Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.01Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.01Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.06Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.06Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.11Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.01Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.04Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.01Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.06Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?$0.05Apr 2, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $0.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 12:22 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.