Experienced-Former
0xd871accb62dc87ee234fb5135e5140d3ffc3a133
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-433.59
Realised
$-2.95
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$484.50
$184.50
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$115.50
$-184.50
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on July 31?
98 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$98.03
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 31?
91 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$90.60
$0.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C or higher on July 31?
90 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$90.07
$0.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 31?
71 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$70.69
$0.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on July 31?
50 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.33
$0.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 1?
50 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$49.89
$-0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 31?
40 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$40.30
$0.34
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 31?
40 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$40.22
$0.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 31?$10.05Jul 31, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 31?$20.12Jul 31, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 31?$40.55Jul 31, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 31?$19.99Jul 31, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 31?$30.27Jul 31, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 31?$5.00Jul 31, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?$60.40Jul 31, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 31?$19.99Jul 31, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 31?$19.99Jul 31, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 31?$24.98Jul 31, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 31?$20.14Jul 31, 15:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 31?$20.18Jul 31, 15:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 31?$20.18Jul 31, 15:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 31?$20.13Jul 31, 15:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 31?$50.36Jul 31, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on July 31?$29.97Jul 31, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on July 31?$0.60Jul 31, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on July 31?$97.99Jul 31, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on July 31?$39.96Jul 31, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 31?$34.49Jul 31, 15:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $24.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 05:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 18:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.