Jovial-Fob
0xd8b9187d48c29d272df9b3f6a974c58c14633296
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-56.10
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 4?
341 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 3?
281 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-8.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?
265 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-13.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?
247 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-69.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 1?
218 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 2?
218 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3?
215 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 2?
212 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1?
201 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-28.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 28?
197 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-43.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 7?$7.34Apr 8, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 7?$2.14Apr 7, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 7?$2.14Apr 7, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?$2.14Apr 7, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 7?$1.98Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on April 8?$2.00Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 7?$1.99Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 7?$1.98Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7?$1.98Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 7?$2.00Apr 7, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6?$12.29Apr 6, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?$6.09Apr 6, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 6?$5.68Apr 6, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 6?$4.62Apr 6, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6?$10.54Apr 6, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 6?$1.98Apr 6, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 6?$2.00Apr 6, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 7?$1.99Apr 6, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C or below on April 6?$2.00Apr 6, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C or below on April 7?$1.97Apr 6, 01:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 10:39 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 08:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.