Scarce-Clutch
0xd8ca859ce89f3f32d249ef9c4d1ce994c2952e0a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-906.89
Realised
$71.14
Win rate
50%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 11, 2026 (ET)?
6877 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-69.95
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?
4690 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-75.64
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 10, 2026 (ET)?
4383 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-49.83
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?
2966 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-57.33
- YES
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
2809 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.35
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?
1395 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.58
- YES
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
1005 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.77
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
628 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.82Feb 28, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$31.68Feb 28, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$12.86Feb 28, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$118.68Feb 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$30.00Feb 28, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$1.00Feb 28, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$1.00Feb 28, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$4.46Feb 28, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$52.00Feb 28, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?$124.87Feb 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$43.00Feb 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 28, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?$30.08Feb 28, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.14Feb 28, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.53Feb 28, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?$1.96Feb 28, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?$10.00Feb 28, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?$152.62Feb 28, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?$70.84Feb 28, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$174.26Feb 28, 09:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $18.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 18:28 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 11:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.