Friendly-Deficit-Music
0xd8deb44c484bf76be01031c018b6214ad58fe8a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$21.75
Total PnL
$-375.75
Realised
$-9.26
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- COLORADO ROCKIES
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies
30 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$15.45
$-0.15
- MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
12 shares @ 53.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$6.30
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4?
233 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12?
175 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10?
64 shares @ 88.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-56.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?
60 shares @ 70.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-42.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 5?
47 shares @ 83.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-38.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?
42 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 4?
38 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies$3.19Aug 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels$3.25Aug 1, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies$3.19Aug 1, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies$3.19Aug 1, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels$3.25Aug 1, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies$3.19Aug 1, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies$3.19Aug 1, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMPittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds$6.00Aug 1, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds$3.19Aug 1, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMiami Marlins vs. New York Mets$15.98Jul 31, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMPittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds$5.00Jul 31, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. New York Mets$3.25Jul 31, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. New York Mets$2.91Jul 31, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. New York Mets$2.91Jul 31, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$0.00Jul 31, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds$3.11Jul 31, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$16.00Jul 30, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$3.01Jul 30, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$2.96Jul 30, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$3.25Jul 30, 20:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 01:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.