0xd8fa447d6f61fa6774906974b75e54cead7c581f
0xd8fa447d6f61fa6774906974b75e54cead7c581f
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
99
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-33.50
Realised
$21.33
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
494 shares @ 38.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.08
$2.47
- SLOANE STEPHENS
The Memphis Classic: Sloane Stephens vs Darja Vidmanova
415 shares @ 41.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$163.78
$-6.22
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
279 shares @ 60.6¢·now 46.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$128.34
$-40.83
- BEN SHELTON
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton
162 shares @ 63.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$101.21
$-0.81
- ALEX DE MINAUR
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt
109 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$98.45
$-0.54
- CHICAGO CUBS
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
200 shares @ 48.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$95.20
$-1.00
- WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
195 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$81.06
$-0.98
- SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
195 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$81.06
$-0.98
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
80 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$79.64
$39.64
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
93 shares @ 81.4¢·now 82.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$76.60
$1.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?$3.98Jul 30, 15:42 UTC
- SPLITWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$20.00Jul 30, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$6.70Jul 30, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?$2.34Jul 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?$2.70Jul 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?$2.25Jul 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?$1.84Jul 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves$84.42Jul 30, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.90Jul 30, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$1.40Jul 30, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.95Jul 30, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.00Jul 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$3.83Jul 30, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$7.39Jul 30, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$22.23Jul 30, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays$36.27Jul 30, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$2.10Jul 30, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$11.98Jul 30, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$1.40Jul 30, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$23.90Jul 30, 15:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $10.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 14:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 15:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.