Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

152

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-20.2K

Realised

$-5.9K

Win rate

59 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 152

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
1083 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
731 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-264.38
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
694 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-224.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
644 shares @ 49.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$0.00
$-318.64
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
640 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-204.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
638 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-287.11
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
593 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-303.23
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
582 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-257.71
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
575 shares @ 47.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-271.32
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
557 shares @ 42.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-234.59

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$64.38Jul 6, 14:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$132.40Jul 6, 14:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$19.63Jul 6, 09:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$36.30Jul 6, 09:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$135.90Jul 6, 09:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$141.41Jul 6, 08:50 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.05Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$36.26Jun 23, 18:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$75.91Jun 23, 18:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$382.79Jun 23, 18:00 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.14Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.19Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$9.22Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.01Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$34.24Jun 17, 22:22 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$41.88Jun 17, 22:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$264.67Jun 17, 22:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$14.37Jun 15, 09:56 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$27.39Jun 15, 09:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$110.05Jun 15, 09:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 59 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

59 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $105.56
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 23:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 14:09 UTC
Win rate sample: 59 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:04:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data