Lustrous-Gradient
0xd92909d74fb2828def6f9339d99d9e3a9b14168c
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.67
Total PnL
$-963.25
Realised
$-3.74
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?
43 shares @ 4.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$0.71
$-1.33
- YES
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.44
$-0.56
- YES
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
21 shares @ 4.8¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-0.75
- YES
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.10
$-0.79
- YES
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.06
$0.00
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
8001 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-98.98
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
3600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$1.98Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-07-09?$77.55Jul 9, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$4.04Jul 7, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$4.04Jul 7, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$4.25Jul 7, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$7.00Jul 7, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$4.32Jul 7, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$3.69Jul 6, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$7.00Jul 6, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$4.32Jul 6, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$4.66Jul 6, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$3.98Jul 6, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$7.24Jul 6, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$7.00Jul 6, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$4.32Jul 6, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.97Jul 6, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$4.25Jul 6, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$3.76Jul 6, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$3.97Jul 5, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$3.91Jul 5, 23:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $6.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 15:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.