Wallet digest

active

Activity score

55/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-786.58

Realised

$1.06

Win rate

63%

8 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 53

YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UNDER
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
192 shares @ 70.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-135.30
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?
156 shares @ 67.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-105.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
139 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
NO
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score
134 shares @ 59.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-80.00
UNDER
Independiente Santa Fe vs. América de Cali: O/U 1.5
125 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-34.89
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
108 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-53.88
YES
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 4 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC?
105 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.26Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.26Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.02Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.67Jun 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.50Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.14Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.29Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.13Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.75Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.18Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.50May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.84May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.23May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.60May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.56May 23, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.44May 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.81May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.10May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.53May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.79May 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

28/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

63% win rate over 8 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity46 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence27 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk51 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $21.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 12, 02:43 UTC
Last active: Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 8 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:43:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data