Substantial-Setting
0xd92f5d6a14d6ea3d009ed1455ad587959c78acac
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$32.33
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?
50754 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-97.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4?
14169 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-133.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?
9358 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-94.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6?
8831 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-55.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 5?
7390 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-47.68
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4?
3750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 5?
3750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6?
3368 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-34.66
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on June 5?
3000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$12.00Jul 31, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$19.05Jul 30, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$12.13Jul 30, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$12.13Jul 29, 21:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$21.43Jul 29, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$11.52Jul 29, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$20.69Jul 29, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$12.30Jul 29, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$12.32Jul 29, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$19.05Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$12.13Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$11.36Jul 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$52.88Jul 24, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$55.47Jul 24, 21:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$85.94Jul 24, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$53.01Jul 24, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$44.77Jul 24, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$73.77Jul 24, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$21.84Jul 24, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$23.79Jul 24, 13:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $27.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 04:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 03:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.