Jolly-Pin
0xd941c0290eff678bd8714bc06d136533b42e9cca
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-161.55
Realised
$-82.59
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on April 14?
562 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 15?
185 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 14?
112 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 15?
85 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-11.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?
41 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 14?
23 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on April 14?
19 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15?
14 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15?
13 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$0.00Apr 28, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$5.00Apr 28, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$10.03Apr 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$5.00Apr 28, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$8.80Apr 28, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.00Apr 28, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$0.00Apr 28, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$5.00Apr 28, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$9.11Apr 28, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$5.00Apr 28, 05:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$0.00Apr 28, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$5.00Apr 28, 02:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$9.83Apr 28, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$5.00Apr 28, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$0.00Apr 28, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$5.00Apr 28, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.00Apr 27, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.00Apr 27, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$9.28Apr 27, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$5.00Apr 27, 23:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $5.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 22:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 11:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.