Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

116

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-504.54

Realised

$-34.93

Win rate

47%

55 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 116

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
285 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.00
$-28.44
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
281 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1AM ET
132 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
112 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026
$0.00
$-4.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
MI LONDON
The Hundred: MI London vs London Spirit
78 shares @ 46.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026
$0.00
$-36.37
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
70 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-9.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
62 shares @ 72.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
60 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.80

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$2.01Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$7.47Jul 29, 21:53 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$4.77Jul 29, 21:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$9.05Jul 29, 21:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5PM ET$0.83Jul 29, 21:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5PM ET$2.09Jul 29, 21:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$20.67Jul 29, 21:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.00Jul 29, 21:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.01Jul 29, 21:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.32Jul 29, 21:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$6.17Jul 29, 21:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.12Jul 29, 21:42 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.22Jul 29, 21:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$9.34Jul 29, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.27Jul 29, 21:40 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$7.86Jul 29, 21:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$10.08Jul 29, 21:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$6.08Jul 29, 21:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$4.98Jul 29, 21:36 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.29Jul 29, 21:36 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

47% win rate over 55 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

55 closed markets, 47% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $5.41
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 29, 21:07 UTC
Last active: Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 55 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:02:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data