Improbable-Process
0xd94dce49709df1ec4b6f4432d4003a9154e5365e
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$2.11
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
86 shares @ 29.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.11
$-22.89
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
2632 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3?
1519 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Biden pardon Diddy?
1460 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Bybit insolvent before April?
1064 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Evidence released proving JFK assassination was an inside job by Feb 10?
1053 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?
1032 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Assad leaves Russia before 2026?
833 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?
833 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Biden pardon SBF?
595 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$156.25Apr 9, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$25.00Apr 2, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$18.32Mar 31, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$220.44Mar 30, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$200.00Mar 29, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$100.00Mar 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-22?$59.52Mar 26, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMSolana ETF approved by July 31?$131.58Mar 26, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMTimberwolves vs. Celtics$150.60Mar 26, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? $270.27Mar 26, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$50.00Mar 23, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$50.00Mar 23, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$50.00Mar 23, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-22?$33.55Mar 23, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTimberwolves vs. Celtics$150.00Mar 23, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$200.00Mar 23, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-22?$25.00Mar 23, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana hit $250 in March?$50.00Mar 2, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3?$50.00Mar 2, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana ETF approved by July 31?$50.00Feb 22, 20:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $71.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 7, 04:53 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 9, 03:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.