Admirable-Child
0xd98a51f014315d0130d748b876a5092c38394db0
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$9.0K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-108.05
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
900 shares @ 82.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$861.30
$117.30
- NO
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?
815 shares @ 88.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$782.71
$58.49
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
720 shares @ 90.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$717.18
$67.52
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$664.94
$69.99
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
600 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$577.50
$7.50
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 96.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$497.25
$13.40
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
422 shares @ 92.2¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$400.59
$11.44
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
400 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$398.20
$26.20
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
422 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$394.42
$23.15
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
439 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$388.73
$-10.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$164.00Jul 29, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$200.00Jul 29, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$399.71Jul 29, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$368.89Jul 29, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$302.64Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$92.18Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$100.62Jul 27, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$14.48Jul 27, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$115.11Jul 26, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$371.93Jul 25, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$76.88Jul 25, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$448.81Jul 25, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$169.95Jul 25, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$123.79Jul 25, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$109.68Jul 25, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$171.59Jul 25, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$175.69Jul 25, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$85.73Jul 25, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$133.33Jul 25, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$425.00Jul 25, 12:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $199.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.