Chief-Emotion
0xd98c2a1c002d36b8836c8aefcbce936746f5628a
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$0.01
Total PnL
$-37.10
Realised
$2.16
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?
10 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.01
$-1.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on July 18?
73 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
57 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?
45 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.44
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
32 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
32 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?
27 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?$1.20Jul 21, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?$0.71Jul 21, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?$1.54Jul 21, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?$0.29Jul 21, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$26.51Jul 20, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$6.20Jul 20, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$0.28Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$3.24Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 20?$0.53Jul 20, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$8.80Jul 20, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$0.35Jul 20, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$1.84Jul 20, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$1.61Jul 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$0.25Jul 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?$0.55Jul 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.07Jul 20, 12:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.06Jul 20, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.08Jul 20, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.04Jul 20, 11:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.