Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.0K

Realised

$-96.67

Win rate

32 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 32

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
202 shares @ 36.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-73.36
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
202 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-131.32
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
202 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-88.89
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
202 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-22.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
202 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-50.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
202 shares @ 55.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-112.70
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
202 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-90.14
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
202 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-112.88
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
202 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-113.14
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
202 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-62.63

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$34.64Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.60Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.54Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.16Jun 30, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$116.62Jun 30, 12:05 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$319.67Jun 29, 18:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$104.81Jun 29, 18:00 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.22Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$202.03Jun 28, 14:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$134.54Jun 28, 14:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$202.03Jun 28, 11:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$92.38Jun 28, 11:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$202.03Jun 28, 10:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$98.48Jun 28, 10:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$114.62Jun 28, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$76.63Jun 28, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$116.36Jun 28, 08:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$202.03Jun 28, 05:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$119.75Jun 28, 05:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$67.73Jun 28, 03:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 32 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

32 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry75 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $105.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 27, 01:10 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 32 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:50:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data