Mature-Bed
0xd9b20c6b3271c991a2dcaed4ed7af25f8befc884
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-362.81
Realised
$-28.50
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2360 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.56
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1562 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-13.79
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
1126 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
470 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.88
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
440 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
416 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.94
- YES
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
400 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.20
- YES
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
292 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.36Jun 17, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026?$1.37Jun 17, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$2.23Jun 15, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$2.20Jun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$4.44Jun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$2.05Jun 7, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$2.05Jun 7, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLEbola pandemic in 2026?$4.00Jun 7, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$1.32Jun 3, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$0.69Jun 3, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$2.17Jun 3, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.07Jun 3, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.20Jun 3, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events?$7.38Jun 3, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events?$0.43Jun 3, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026?$6.85Jun 3, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$25.01Jun 1, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?$10.36May 27, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?$5.19May 27, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$5.00May 26, 21:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 13:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 03:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.