Belated-Roundabout
0xd9bd38055a518bb527c830a546555ec1af9722f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$949.84
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$-238.87
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
325 shares @ 95.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$313.06
$1.34
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
900 shares @ 27.3¢·now 23.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$207.45
$-38.55
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1045 shares @ 9.3¢·now 13.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$136.39
$39.61
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1130 shares @ 24.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.15
$-214.75
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
56 shares @ 94.2¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.91
$1.48
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
603 shares @ 19.2¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.95
$-64.65
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
300 shares @ 35.0¢·now 15.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$46.95
$-58.05
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 2.2¢·now 3.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$36.50
$14.50
- YES
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$32.50
$-7.50
- NO
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 92.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.98
$0.73
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $99.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.