Wallet digest

active

Activity score

35/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.7K

Realised

$15.47

Win rate

13%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 16

EYEBALLERS
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage
2490 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-789.25
MIBR ACADEMY
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Playoffs
1113 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-193.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 3PM ET
1036 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-289.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
949 shares @ 46.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-438.79
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner
822 shares @ 67.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026
$0.00
$-557.27
YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
680 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-165.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 6PM ET
471 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-126.86
METANOIA WOLVES
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage
431 shares @ 64.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-278.39
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
425 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
OVER
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 0.5
417 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$3.17Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.23Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner$566.24Jul 26, 13:26 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$104.93Jul 26, 13:14 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$75.62Jul 26, 13:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$203.78Jul 26, 13:12 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$189.43Jul 26, 13:10 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$15.00Jul 26, 13:09 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$235.00Jul 26, 13:08 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$276.83Jul 26, 13:07 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$80.25Jul 26, 13:06 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$611.87Jul 26, 12:59 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 5AM ET$0.00Jul 15, 10:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 5AM ET$104.34Jul 15, 09:31 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$105.54Jul 15, 09:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$44.58Jul 15, 09:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$43.04Jul 15, 09:27 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

13% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $221.49
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 16:45 UTC
Last active: Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:27:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data