Surprised-Cycle
0xd9bf3bc45f0a9387eac30d5f8469f69933ab58b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$2.09
Total PnL
$-36.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$2.09
$1.11
- YES
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
56 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
18 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
17 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.00Mar 29, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$15.00Mar 16, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$11.97Mar 8, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$26.23Mar 8, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?$10.00Mar 8, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$18.57Mar 1, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$82.43Feb 28, 20:51 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$20.41Feb 28, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$2.96Feb 28, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$2.00Feb 28, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$1.00Feb 28, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 5, 23:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (February 8)$0.00Feb 5, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? $7.75Feb 5, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (February 8)$1.20Feb 5, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (February 8)$1.00Feb 2, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? $5.00Feb 2, 00:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $7.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 16, 21:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 29, 23:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".