Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-971.47

Realised

$-35.93

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 81

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
176 shares @ 31.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-54.87
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
136 shares @ 40.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-55.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
107 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-77.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
89 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-63.83
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
82 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-19.76
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
54 shares @ 47.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-25.61
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
53 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
50 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
47 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-9.26
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
45 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-17.79

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.08Jun 1, 02:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$3.95Jun 1, 02:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$2.74Jun 1, 02:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$7.07Jun 1, 02:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$3.52Jun 1, 02:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$2.67Jun 1, 02:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$1.50Jun 1, 02:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$1.83Jun 1, 02:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$2.45Jun 1, 02:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$6.00Jun 1, 02:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$3.48Jun 1, 02:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$4.56Jun 1, 02:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$5.11Jun 1, 02:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$2.57Jun 1, 02:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$18.82Jun 1, 02:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$7.50Jun 1, 02:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$8.63Jun 1, 02:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$4.11Jun 1, 02:14 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$5.39Jun 1, 02:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$3.35Jun 1, 02:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

37/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $4.06
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 1, 01:41 UTC
Last active: Jun 1, 02:38 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:34:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data