Red-Programme
0xda278299b3db0ac43f38da23272261bd3f444f3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$15.14
Total PnL
$-4.56
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?
4 shares @ 99.2¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.87
$-0.03
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?
4 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.48
$-0.02
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.80
$-0.00
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.60
$-0.00
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.40
$-0.00
- YES
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
220 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.99
$-0.11
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31?
397 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will My Aurora Forecast Pro be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
280 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in November 2025?
267 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?$3.50Jul 23, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?$2.60Jul 23, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?$1.40Jul 23, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.80Jul 21, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?$3.90Jul 14, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$84.47Jul 1, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$84.30Jul 1, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?$4.04Jun 1, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $50 in May?$3.01Jun 1, 11:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $20 in May?$5.01Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?$63.43Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$4.02Jun 1, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$5.02Jun 1, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?$63.31May 31, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.00May 31, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?$1.00May 30, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?$1.00May 30, 03:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?$52.39May 30, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?$3.02May 30, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?$4.01May 29, 23:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $18.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 22:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.