Vague-Confirmation
0xda59d7e2d133eba9b09125e3902748189660398c
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-36.76
Win rate
6%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
1005 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
396 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-51.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
357 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
336 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-43.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
239 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-51.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
223 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-55.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
163 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-18.56
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
154 shares @ 22.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-34.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
151 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-16.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$54.56Jul 12, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$4.27Jul 12, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$4.24Jul 12, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.06Jul 12, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$19.74Jul 12, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.26Jul 12, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.25Jul 12, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$25.76Jul 12, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$25.82Jul 12, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$19.54Jul 12, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$6.38Jul 12, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.06Jul 12, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.90Jul 12, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.15Jul 12, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.00Jul 12, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.00Jul 12, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.07Jul 12, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.06Jul 12, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.25Jul 12, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.01Jul 12, 09:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
105 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 12:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 10:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.