Present-Freezing
0xda723bab9846c963dbb42f26f37079f0af1446bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-105.45
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
3900 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-14.42
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
2010 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-4.02
- YES
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?
1482 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-16.16
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
930 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.83
- YES
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?
575 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-17.27
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
480 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.55
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
300 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?
60 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-4.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$1.60Dec 10, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$2.00Dec 10, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.05Dec 10, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.09Dec 10, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.70Dec 10, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.18Dec 10, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.18Dec 10, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.05Dec 10, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.04Dec 10, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.05Dec 10, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$0.23Dec 10, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.70Dec 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$1.54Dec 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.14Dec 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.19Dec 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$3.00Dec 10, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$1.50Dec 10, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?$5.22Dec 10, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$1.84Dec 9, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?$1.96Dec 9, 22:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 22:15 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 10, 17:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.