0xda7496b167684f834acbd394bb010e90e1e28798
0xda7496b167684f834acbd394bb010e90e1e28798
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$170.22
Total PnL
$-13.0K
Realised
$-2.9K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- UNDER 10%
What will the margin be in Newsom’s recall election?
7433 shares @ 0.0¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$160.55
$160.55
- GAVIN NEWSOM
Who will come in 2nd place in the 2021 California recall election?
48363 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.67
$9.67
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?
129982 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2021$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
Will Newsom get at least 54% support in his recall election?
118442 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2022$0.00
$-391.80
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?
77881 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2021$0.00
$-1.2K
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?
25057 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2021$0.00
$-865.76
- YES
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on December 31, 2021?
20845 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2021$0.00
$-81.96
- YES
Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 49.0% or higher on September 27?
15838 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2021$0.00
$-5.6K
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on January 6, 2022?
11210 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2022$0.00
$-157.52
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.