Hopeful-Plumber
0xda89fc0495c40b0de8df43f31ebb9949b80ef7cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$16.7K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
8449 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.8K
$381.98
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
9058 shares @ 66.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.0K
$-951.09
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
3237 shares @ 90.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$28.14
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2000 shares @ 54.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$859.00
$-221.00
- NO
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by March 31?
1254 shares @ 39.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-499.93
- NO
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
77 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-43.04
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.79Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.78Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.77Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.77Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.