Wallet digest

active

Activity score

100/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$1.2K

Total PnL

$625.03

Realised

$37.23

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?
676 shares @ 15.2¢·now 91.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$615.40
$512.64
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?
520 shares @ 47.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$249.65
$5.20
NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?
197 shares @ 53.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$191.42
$86.94
YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
146 shares @ 63.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$60.43
$-31.31
NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?
44 shares @ 55.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$37.18
$12.98
NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in August?
34 shares @ 53.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$19.15
$1.34

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?$239.98Aug 11, 11:07 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?$9.65Aug 11, 11:06 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$357.36Aug 11, 11:05 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in August?$18.14Aug 10, 11:30 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$299.28Aug 10, 10:48 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026?$9.22Aug 7, 09:26 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026?$10.40Aug 7, 09:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?$24.64Aug 5, 05:58 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?$1.15Aug 3, 13:39 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?$4.33Aug 3, 13:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?$11.99Aug 3, 13:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?$64.85Aug 2, 06:54 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?$106.45Aug 2, 03:38 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?$151.33Aug 2, 03:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$91.74Aug 1, 08:50 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$80.45Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.3KJul 31, 23:02 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of July 27 2026?$298.57Jul 31, 23:01 UTC
TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 31?$167.15Jul 31, 07:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 31?$200.69Jul 31, 02:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry83 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk71 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $173.54
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 14:04 UTC
Last active: Aug 11, 11:07 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:19:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data